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Democrats hold only a narrow edge over Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new national survey published by RealClearPolitics.
Respondents were asked two versions of the generic ballot question. In one, 45% said they would back a Democratic candidate in the 2026 midterm elections, 43% chose a Republican, and 12% remained undecided. In a second test that asked how they would vote if the election were held “tomorrow,” Democrats edged out Republicans 47% to 46%, with 5% undecided or saying they would not vote.
The newly formed National Association of Independent Pollsters — which includes Big Data Poll, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, and the Trafalgar Group — conducted the poll Sept. 6-13 among 2,071 likely voters. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.
RealClearPolitics analysts said the findings show Republicans cutting into the Democratic advantage compared with earlier polling averages.
The survey also revealed sharp demographic divides. Democrats dominated among younger voters, leading Republicans by more than 10 points among those aged 18 to 29, as well as among Hispanic, Asian, and other minority groups. Republicans remained strong with white voters and polled in the mid-30th percentile range among African American voters.
The survey period overlapped with the Sept. 10 assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Pollsters did not measure its direct impact, but RealClearPolitics analysts noted that the national outpouring of grief and anger would likely drive a surge of Republican turnout “if the midterms were held tomorrow.”
